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01 Welcome
02 Contents
03 Executive Summary
04 Introduction
05 Challenges to Commonwealth Trade
06 Benefits: Cost Reductions
07 Benefits: Increased Trade
08 Conclusions

Benefits: Increased Trade

Benefits of moving to paperless trade

1) Impact on Commonwealth Trade
2) Impact: Commonwealth Africa
3) Impact: Commonwealth Americas & Caribbean
4) Impact: Commonwealth Asia
5) Impact: Commonwealth Pacific
6) Impact: Commonwealth Larger Economies

1

Impact on trade

The research set out to estimate the impact on Commonwealth trade of electronic transferable records.

By combining the impact of cost reductions and greater access to finance, there could be as much as a US$1.1 trillion increase in trade by 2026 assuming the upper bound of estimates by 2026.

The results show clearly that for all economies there will be a significant improvement in trade resulting from two things:

  1. the reduction in costs, which enables more exporters to access trade routes;
  2. the improvement in access to finance, which has the effect of creating markets, especially for SMEs who are currently excluded because they are unable to access traditional forms of trade finance because of the due diligence costs involved.
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How trade would accelerate through electronic transferrable instruments (e-bills, promissory notes): trend and forecast growth from digitisation compared (US$ billion)

2

Impact: Commonwealth Africa

Nigeria will see the largest potential increase in trade from the adoption of electronic transferable records amongst Commonwealth Africa countries (excluding South Africa) with an upper end projected gain of US$31.1 billion.

This is nearly six times the potential gain of Kenya, second amongst Commonwealth Africa countries with a $5.9 projected gain to trade, and one of the biggest gaps between first and second regional gainers in the Commonwealth. Namibia ($5.6 billion), Cameroon ($4.3 billion) and Zambia ($3.5 billion) round out the regional top five gainers.

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Impact: Commonwealth Africa (excluding South Africa): boost to trade from digital trade facilitation at borders (trend, best and worst case by 2026, US$million)

Additional trade by 2026, upper end projections

Country
Additional trade (US$)
1. Nigeria
$31.1 bn
2. Kenya
$5.9 bn
3. Namibia
$5.6 bn
4. Cameroon
$4.3 bn
5. Zambia
$3.5 bn

$31.1 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

$5.9 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

$5.6 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

3

Impact: Commonwealth Caribbean

Trinidad & Tobago will see the largest potential increase in trade from the adoption of electronic transferable records amongst Commonwealth Caribbean countries with an upper end projected gain of US$9.3 billion.

This is just ahead of Guyana with a $9 billion project to gain to trade, followed by a significant gap to Jamaica ($1 billion), Bahamas ($1 billion) and Barbados ($284 million) to round out the regional top five gainers.

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Impact: Commonwealth Caribbean: boost to trade from digital trade facilitation at borders (trend, best and worst case by 2026, US$million)

Additional trade by 2026, upper end projections

Country
Additional trade (US$)
1. Trinidad & Tobago
$9.3 bn
2. Guyana
$9 bn
3. Jamaica
$1 bn
4. Bahamas
$1 bn
5. Barbados
$284 m

$9.3 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

$9 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

$1 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

4

Impact: Commonwealth Asia

Malaysia will see the largest potential increase in trade from the adoption of electronic transferable records amongst Commonwealth Asia countries (excluding India and Singapore) with an upper end projected gain of US$263 billion.

This is one of the biggest potential gains in the Commonwealth overall and more than four times the upper end projection of Bangladesh, second amongst Commonwealth Asia countries with an $52 billion projected gain to trade.

Pakistan ($27 billion), Sri Lanka ($12 billion) and Brunei ($7.1 billion) round out the regional top five gainers.

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Impact: Commonwealth Asia (excluding India and Singapore): boost to trade from digital trade facilitation at borders (trend, best and worst case by 2026, US$ million)

Additional trade by 2026, upper end projections

Country
Additional trade (US$)
1. Malaysia
$263 bn
2. Bangladesh
$52 bn
3. Pakistan
$27 bn
4. Sri Lanka
$12 bn
5. Brunei
$7.1 bn

$263 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

$52 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

$27 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

5

Impact: Commonwealth Pacific

Vanuatu will see the largest potential increase in trade from the adoption of electronic transferable records amongst Commonwealth Pacific countries (excluding Australia and New Zealand) with an upper end projected gain of US$19 billion.

This is more than twice the upper end projection of Papua New Guinea, second amongst Commonwealth Pacific countries with an $8.2 billion projected gain to trade. Fiji ($803 million), the Solomon Islands ($599 million) and Nauru ($198 million) round out the regional top five gainers.

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Impact: Commonwealth Pacific (excluding Australia and New Zealand): boost to trade from digital trade facilitation at borders (trend, best and worst case by 2026, US$ million)

Additional trade by 2026, upper end projections

Country
Additional trade (US$)
1. Vanuatu
$19 bn
2. Papua New Guinea
$8.2 bn
3. Fiji
$803 m
4. Solomon Islands
$599 m
5. Nauru
$198 m

$19 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

$8.2 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

$803 million

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

6

Impact: Commonwealth Larger Economies

Australia will see the largest potential increase in trade from the adoption of electronic transferable records both amongst Commonwealth Larger Economies and the Commonwealth overall with an upper end projected gain of US$513 billion.

This is nearly twice the upper end projection of India, second amongst Commonwealth Larger Economies with a $272 billion projected gain to trade. South Arica ($183 billion), Singapore ($130 billion) and Canada ($89 billion) round out the top five gainers.

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Impact: Commonwealth Larger Economies: boost to trade from digital trade facilitation at borders (trend, best and worst case by 2026, US$ million)

Additional trade by 2026, upper end projections

Country
Additional trade (US$)
1. Australia
$513 bn
2. India
$272 bn
3. South Africa
$183 bn
4. Singapore
$130 bn
5. Canada
$89 bn

$513 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

$272 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

$183 billion

Additional trade by 2026 (upper-end projection)

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Benefits: Cost Reductions

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Conclusions

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