Benefits: Increased Trade

Impact on trade

The research set out to estimate the impact on Commonwealth trade of electronic transferable records.

By combining the impact of cost reductions and greater access to finance, there could be as much as a US$1.1 trillion increase in trade by 2026 assuming the upper bound of estimates by 2026.

The results show clearly that for all economies there will be a significant improvement in trade resulting from two things:

1. the reduction in costs, which enables more exporters to access trade routes;
2. the improvement in access to finance, which has the effect of creating markets, especially for SMEs who are currently excluded because they are unable to access traditional forms of trade finance because of the due diligence costs involved.

Impact: Commonwealth Africa

Nigeria will see the largest potential increase in trade from the adoption of electronic transferable records amongst Commonwealth Africa countries (excluding South Africa) with an upper end projected gain of US$31.1 billion.

This is nearly six times the potential gain of Kenya, second amongst Commonwealth Africa countries with a $5.9 projected gain to trade, and one of the biggest gaps between first and second regional gainers in the Commonwealth. Namibia ($5.6 billion), Cameroon ($4.3 billion) and Zambia ($3.5 billion) round out the regional top five gainers.

Impact: Commonwealth Caribbean

Trinidad & Tobago will see the largest potential increase in trade from the adoption of electronic transferable records amongst Commonwealth Caribbean countries with an upper end projected gain of US$9.3 billion.

This is just ahead of Guyana with a $9 billion project to gain to trade, followed by a significant gap to Jamaica ($1 billion), Bahamas ($1 billion) and Barbados ($284 million) to round out the regional top five gainers.